Baseball

Can The Market Handle Countless Shohei Ohtani High-Grade Rookie Cards?

It has been more than 100 years since a superstar baseball player was both a solid batter and a solid pitcher, and the record books are about to be broken in the 2021 MLB All-Star Game as Shohei Ohtani takes the field as a representative of the Angels. There just hasn’t been a pitcher who was also such a strong hitter since Babe Ruth, but Shohei Ohtani has been selected to bat and pitch in the game, and he will also participate in the highly followed Home Run Derby.

Shohei Ohtani has been called the Japanese Babe Ruth and Sho Time by his fans. Needless to say, that will make for a frenzy for modern era baseball card collectors. While his average as of last look was only .277 for this 2021 season, his slugging percentage of a very impressive .695 was leading the league as was his count of 31 homers even a week before before the All-Star break.

Baseball card collectors have chased rookie cards for decades, and the rookie stars of the 1950s were generally limited to one or two cards as their rookies. Zoom forward into the 1990s with limited edition sets dedicated to some rookies, and then zoom forward into the last decade and there are now more rookie cards than can easily be counted.

Collectors Dashboard evaluates collectibles as an alternative asset class, effectively looking at collectibles that cost hundreds or thousands of dollars in the same light as stocks, bonds and real estate investments. It has become undeniable that collectors with a deep passion to own certain collectibles have had to compete directly against investors who are solely buying an asset to sell at a higher price in the future. There are no assurances in any investment that the buyer will make a profit, and chasing the latest hot athlete can come with some incredibly painful outcomes.

Shohei Ohtani is a player that ever modern era sports collector seems to want a piece of. The high demand should easily handle a large supply, but a closer look shows that the actual supply of Ohtani rookie card variations is effectively “countless” even in the high-grade examples. This means that the high-population cards at the highest grades (10 and 9) should be evaluated in an entirely different light than other high-grade Ohtani’s limited edition autographed and/or patch cards with very low populations.

The so-called “countless” cards easily measure in the tens-of-thousands. Low population rookie cards should command much higher prices than the base cards, but even for a player like Ohtani this will require his career to remain bright.

The top sale we tracked under Shohei Ohtani rookie cards was a Shohei Ohtani 2018 Bowman Chrome Red Refractor RC Auto Autograph 5/5 BGS 9.5/10 that sold on June 6, 2021 with an auction price of $56,716.16. Two other sales were very close to each other and they seem to be almost identical cards:

  • May 11, 2018 — 2018 Bowman Chrome Red Refractor Shohei Ohtani Angels RC AUTO 5/5 for $35,100.00
  • May 7, 2021 — 2018 Bowman Chrome Red Refractor Shohei Ohtani Angels RC Rookie AUTO 1/5 for $30,300.00

After conducting some basic research, one article stood out — SHOHEI OHTANI ROOKIE CARD GUIDE AND OTHER KEY EARLY MLB CARDS. The list of the different Ohtani choices for collectors and investors to fight over is simply too long to list in an article format to count them all. The Beckett article pointed out some of the great cards with images and starts in greater detail, but it looks as though their team also came to the same conclusion that the list too daunting to stay in great detail from start to finish.

To back up the “countless” reference in the supply of Ohtani rookie cards, a PSA Set Registry “Shohei Ohtani Rookie Showcase,” including his 2013 cards from Japan and his 2017 pre-playing U.S.-released cards, was last tallied at more than 36,000 examples of 274 different card issues at the highest grade (generally PSA 10) alone.

The long and short of the matter is there are countless thousands of additional Ohtani rookie cards graded by SGC, Beckett, CGC and others. And for even more complication in the mix, how many Shohei Ohtani rookie cards are in line to be graded already in the deep backlog of cards that have not yet been graded? Here are just some of the higher population cards of Shohei Ohtani:

  • Of the 2018 Bowman Shohei Ohtani Rookie Card #49, the base card counts a massive 1,513 examples at PSA 9 and 3,034 examples at the prized PSA 10.
  • The 2017 Topps Now Off-Season’s total PSA population of Shohei Ohtani is 1,458 and of that the PSA 10 population was 1,107 on last look.
  • The 2018 TOPPS UPDATE series (US#1) counted 7,530 graded base cards, with 4,936 as PSA 10 and 2,288 as PSA 9.
  • The 2018 Topps Living edition, which is modeled after the 1953 Topps set, had nearly 21,000 cards issued in total. PSA had graded a total of 2,436 base grades alone, with 1,388 examples at PSA 10 and 966 examples at PSA 9.
  • 2018 Bowman Chrome Shohei Ohtani Rookie Card #1 had a PSA population of 1,551 total graded cards and 1,005 were at the prices PSA 10 and 504 at the PSA 9 grade.

The list below is incomplete due to time constraints, but these and others also help to make up that countless population of Shohei Ohtani rookies:

  • 2018 Bowman Platinum Baseball Shohei Ohtani Rookie Card #34
  • 2018 Bowman’s Best Shohei Ohtani Rookie Card #1
  • 2018 Classics Shohei Ohtani Rookie Card #7
  • 2018 Classics Shohei Ohtani Rookie Card #13
  • 2018 Diamond Kings Shohei Ohtani Rookie Card #73
  • 2018 Diamond Kings Shohei Ohtani Rookie Card #76
  • 2018 Donruss Shohei Ohtani Rookie Card #281
  • 2018 Donruss Optic Shohei Ohtani Rookie Card #56
  • 2018 Finest Shohei Ohtani Rookie Card #100
  • 2018 Immaculate Collection Shohei Ohtani Rookie Auto Patch #37
  • 2018 Limited Shohei Ohtani Rookie Card #18
  • 2018 Panini Chronicles Shohei Ohtani rookie card #1
  • 2018 Panini Chronicles Shohei Ohtani rookie card #30
  • 2018 Panini Contenders Optic Shohei Ohtani RC #9
  • 2018 Panini Cornerstones Shohei Ohtani Rookie Card #35
  • 2018 Panini Crusade Shohei Ohtani Rookie Card #14
  • 2018 Panini Flawless Shohei Ohtani RC #3
  • 2018 Panini Illusions Shohei Ohtani RC #12
  • 2018 Panini National Treasures Shohei Ohtani RC #48
  • 2018 Panini Phoenix Shohei Ohtani RC #20
  • 2018 Panini Prizm Shohei Ohtani RC #23
  • 2018 Panini Revolution Shohei Ohtani RC #6
  • 2018 Panini Spectra Shohei Ohtani RC #35
  • 2018 Panini Spectra Shohei Ohtani RC #76
  • 2018 Panini Status Shohei Ohtani RC #1
  • 2018 Prestige Shohei Ohtani RC #3
  • 2018 Prestige Shohei Ohtani RC #28
  • 2018 Rookies and Stars Shohei Ohtani RC #1
  • 2018 Score Shohei Ohtani RC #11
  • 2018 Score Shohei Ohtani RC #16
  • 2018 Select Shohei Ohtani RC #3
  • 2018 Stadium Club Shohei Ohtani Rookie Card #138
  • 2018 Studio Shohei Ohtani RC #3
  • 2018 Topps Shohei Ohtani Rookie Card #700
  • 2018 Topps Allen & Ginter Shohei Ohtani RC #100
  • 2018 Topps Allen & Ginter X Shohei Ohtani RC #100
  • 2018 Topps Archives Shohei Ohtani RC #50
  • 2018 Topps Archives Snapshots Shohei Ohtani RC
  • 2018 Topps Big League Shohei Ohtani Rookie Card #141
  • 2018 Topps Chrome Shohei Ohtani RC #150
  • 2018 Topps Chrome Update Shohei Ohtani Rookie Card #HMT1
  • 2018 Topps Clearly Authentic Shohei Ohtani RC Autograph #CAA-SO
  • 2018 Topps Diamond Icons Shohei Ohtani RC Autograph #AC-SO
  • 2018 Topps Dynasty Shohei Ohtani RC Auto Patch #AP-SO1 to AP-SO7
  • 2018 Topps Fire Shohei Ohtani RC #150
  • 2018 Topps Five Star Shohei Ohtani RC Autograph #FSA-SO
  • 2018 Topps Gallery Shohei Ohtani Rookie Card #116
  • 2018 Topps Gold Label Shohei Ohtani RC #17 with three variations

Getting a handle on a full population of modern era cards is no simple task. The card-makers like Topps and Panini do not generally share full production numbers, nor do they share numbers on certain players unless they are limited editions. There are still also an unknown number of unopened packs and boxes that the “breakers” have opened yet. And as noted earlier, the total number cards already waiting in line to be graded is also unknown.

Id card buyers just cannot get enough of Shohei Ohtani, there were recently 209 “PSA 10 Shohei Ohtani Rookie Card” that showed up at this time.

As long as Ohtani’s career remains strong he is likely to have lots of collectors who want his rookie cards. Just don’t bet on the countless numbers of high-grade base cards commanding prices in the future like the low-population cards have already been commanding. And for a final reminder, chasing hot rookie cards can be quite painful when injuries or their performance doesn’t stay strong.

Categories: Baseball, Sports

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