Basketball

LeBron James Rookie Card Pop Explodes As Lakers Roster Ages

The 2021-22 Los Angeles Lakers is a team that will be chock full of super-stars. Two-thirds of the NBA teams would love these players on their roster. Along with LeBron James, they have Dwight Howard, Russell Westbrook, Anthony Davis, Carmelo Anthony and others (which can always change) who might feel slighted to go unnamed. Sports card collectors and modern era sports card investors focus on players that are among the greatest of their era. LeBron James easily makes that list. There are two critical issues heading into this season; the first is a dual age and health issue of LeBron and the Lakers’ roster, and the second is a population explosion in graded LeBron James rookie cards.

First and foremost, LeBron James is easily among basketball’s greatest players. LeBron is still 36, and while not old that is after 18 seasons since he came into the NBA right after high school. Being on championship teams year after year is a big attraction for sports investors, but the Los Angeles Lakers did not have a good season at all for the 2020-21 season. His rookie card prices suffered after their season ended on a very sour note.

Here is a look at what to consider for an aging Lakers team of veteran super-stars and a rising card population. And for those sports card investors, always remember that supply and demand come into play — and no one should ever think the market owes them a profit.

AGE & HEALTH OF THE LAKERS TEAM

The coming NBA season has a powerhouse lineup of veterans for the L.A. Lakers. Unfortunately, it may just be a one-year bandage before the team has to be entirely rebuilt for the rest of the decade in the post-LeBron years. Can this team loaded with veterans go all the way? If so, will LeBron rookie cards explode in price again? Or what if there are serious injuries that any NBA team has to consider? If the team is not healthy, or if LeBron has a shortened season, will his rookie card price slide?

Many sports fans think that football is the most physically demanding sport that taxes a player’s body. Basketball involves lots of running, lots of burst moves, lots of jumping, and ultimately falling onto hardwood floors. This translates to lots of injuries involving feet, ankles, Achilles, calves, knees, hamstrings and groins, backs, and just about anything else.

Outside of the players who went straight into the NBA as a teenager, most NBA players have played competitive basketball on teams for at least 10 years by the time they get drafted and signed. Of the current 13-man roster, there are 5 of the players who are in their 16th year. According to a Sporting News report, there are only 8 additional players across all NBA teams who are in their 16th season. All of that running and banging just isn’t easy on the body. Ask any athlete, particularly those whose livelihoods aren’t dependent upon sports, about how they feel in their mid-to-late 30s versus how they felt at 25.

Having a team of veteran players is an obvious bonus when it comes to clinching games and knowing how to win games. Experience matters. The unfortunate flip side is that age matters also. Older legs and backs have taken a longer beating than younger legs and backs. They also take longer to heal when injuries do arise.

EXPLODING ROOKIE CARD POPULATION

Collectors Dashboard has warned about a stealth population of graded cards on top of what is already counted and recorded in modern era cards. PSA released its grading stats on September 9 showing that it has basically caught up after grading 35,000 per day. The bulk of these are reported to be basketball cards, and Collectors Dashboard can confirm with a lookback that the population of LeBron James rookie cards has grown handily in just three months. That card is nearing 20 years old and in just over three months the PSA 8 and 9 grades grew by double-digit percentages (see below).

A LeBron James rookie card set a prior record in sports collectibles earlier in April of 2021. A 2003-04 Upper Deck “Exquisite Collection” #78 LeBron James signed rookie Patch Parallel Card graded BGS GEM MINT 9.0 sold for a whopping $5.2 million. This was a tie at that time for the most expensive sports card ever sold. It is very possible that this price might not have been seen had the sale been in June. Then again, there is a reported $15 million or $20 million LeBron James card that was on display at the 2021 National Sports Collectors Convention.

It turns out that the huge backlog of cards that needed to be graded included a boatload of LeBron rookie cards. At the start of June there were 10,166 total PSA graded examples of his base 2003 Topps variation of the LeBron rookie before getting into qualifiers. Of the PSA grades, there were the following: 2,470 examples at PSA 8; another 4,281 examples at PSA 9; and another 1,935 examples at PSA 10.

Zoom forward to September of 2021. The PSA population report for the 2003 Topps LeBron James (R) shows that there are 11,282 graded examples of his base rookie, before counting 195 half (.5) grades and before 9 other qualifier examples. That is an increase of about 11% of his whole graded population in barely three months. Again, that population growth is just in three months. Of the PSA grades, there were the following (with percentage increases versus June 3, 2021): 2,809 examples at PSA 8 (up 13.7%); another 4,750 examples at PSA 9 (up 10.9%); and another 2,016 examples at PSA 10 (up 4.2%).

PSA’s more recent data also shows that there are also just over 1,500 more base grade examples of this card after you add in the 1st edition (490) and the Collection (938), with more rare examples (black border, gold) making up the balance. We did not do a comparison on the lower population because we did not use the data in our June review.

SGC’s population has also risen handily. SGC’s grading system showed a population report of 735 total graded examples, up 25.2% from the 587 total cards graded as of June 3, 2021. Of those, only 1 was still the count for the 10 PRI. These are the following counts per high grade now, versus June 3: (51 now, versus prior 47) at SGC 10; (30 now, versus prior 26) at SGC 9.5; (248 now, versus prior 221) at SGC 9; and (154 now, versus prior 113) at SGC 8.5.

And as we noted in June, there could still be thousands of more examples of LeBron’s base rookie that collectors and investors have been sitting on as ungraded that have not even yet been submitted to be graded. Many collectors and sports card investors have had to lighten up on grading submissions due to costs and a decline in card prices after the blow-off top earlier in 2021. The grading wait SNAFU of 2020 to 2021 has largely been worked through, but many dealers and collectors are also complaining that higher and perfect grades are also harder to come by now.

BASE ROOKIE CARD PRICES, THEN & NOW

LeBron’s base 2003 Topps rookie in PSA 10 was routinely selling for close to $5,000 at the end of 2020. From January of 2021 the price surged to well above $10,000 into February 2021. There were even two outlier auction prices at $14,400 and $16,200 but the price went to sub-$7,000 at the end of March. This card’s price even dipped under $5,000 in May, but there was an eBay auction (probstein123) that managed to fetch $9,100 on the evening of June 4. Without knowing the details of that auction, and knowing that all PSA 10 examples are not always the exact same look, here were other sales up for grabs on June 4, 2021:

  • PWCC Vault had five (5) PSA 10 examples for sale between $5,050 and $7,000;
  • Alt had one (1) for sale at $7,750 with an “or Best Offer” qualifier;
  • and eBay listings for “Buy It Now” had multiple cards from various sellers from $5,250 to $6,250.

Here are some of the sales for those prize PSA 10’s that have been seen in September and August on eBay and via auction houses:

  • 9/10/2021 for $4,050.00
  • 9/7/2021 for $3,973.00
  • 9/6/2021 for $3,650.00
  • 9/2/2021 for $3,500.00
  • 8/31/2021 for $3,595.00
  • 8/31/2021 for $3,600.00
  • 8/30/2021 for $3,850.00
  • 8/26/2021 for $4,350.00
  • 8/25/2021 for $3,858.00
  • 8/23/2021 for $4,250.00
  • 8/22/2021 for $3,850.00
  • 8/20/2021 for $3,873.00
  • 8/16/2021 for $3,800.00
  • 8/15/2021 for $3,900.00
  • 8/11/2021 for $3,900.00
  • 8/11/2021 for $3,690.00
  • 8/10/2021 for $3,861.33
  • 8/10/2021 for $3,851.00
  • 8/9/2021 for $4,272.00
  • 8/9/2021 for $4,100.00
  • 7/29/2021 for $3,551.01
  • 7/26/2021 for $4,050.00

It has been undeniable that investors have been active in collectibles. Every major auction house and eBay have all started to refer to collectibles as assets and as an alternative asset class. Just remember, prices do not always go up in collectibles. And no one should ever think they deserve a guaranteed profit.

LEBRON’s GREATNESS IS STILL UNDENIABLE

To even question LeBron James’ greatness is a mistake. And actually, that was not and is not the intent. LeBron’s average of at least points, 5 rebounds and 5 assists in 15 different seasons is hands above the rest of history. The Basketball Reference site showed that the next most such seasons to match those stats was 8 by Oscar Robertson. LeBron’s 1,310 regular games has also generated 35,367 points and 9,751 rebounds. LeBron James was also the first player in the NBA’s history to rack up 30,000 points, and count 8,000 rebounds and 8,000 assists in a career.

LeBron plays for winning teams because he is a leading catalyst for any team he has played for. His 18-year career has included 15 years the resulted in the playoffs. He has played in a whopping 266 playoff games, and his playoff tally of 7,631 total points and 2,391 total rebounds is better than many pro careers of other NBA players’ regular season lifetime stats.

According to the NBA official stats, LeBron is third on the list of all-time points. Karl Malone is second on the list at 36,298 and Kareem Abdul-Jabbar is first at 38,387.

LeBron James has a serious shot at becoming the all-time NBA scoring leader. He only needs just under 1,000 points to overtake Karl Malone in 2nd place and needs 3,000 more points plus one average game to pass Kareem Abdul-Jabbar’s all-time leadership. The 2020-21 NBA season only 1,126 points and his averages points per season and total points per game have slowed down since that stellar 2017-18 season.

And before we consider an aging LeBron, lets contrast that Kareem Abdul-Jabbar slowed down too. He played in 20 seasons. And despite playing 72 to 80 games in each of his last 5 seasons his scoring dipped handily in the last 3 seasons.

LeBron James Rookie Card

(Image provided by Heritage Auctions)