Football

Post-Brady: Kyle Trask Rookie Cards 360-Degree Market View

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With the news that Tom Brady is officially retiring from the NFL playing field, sports fans and sports collectors alike are debating who will be the next “greatest of all-time” for that prized GOAT status. Patrick Mahomes comes up as the constant leader, and even younger quarterbacks like Justin Herbert, Joe Burrow and Kyler Murray keep coming up as potential contenders. One quarterback who is seeing a flurry of activity around Tom Brady’s retirement is the young Kyle Trask.

Collectors Dashboard wanted to look at a 360-degree view of Trask’s rookie cards as a so-called market. We say “so-called market” because this is still very premature and too soon to give any real predictions. Trask has virtually zero NFL experience to measure. That said, it sure has not stopped collectors and sports card speculators from buying up Trask rookies like he is the next golden ticket in #TheHobby.

The key issue at hand today is that the Tampa Bay Buccaneers now have to replace Tom Brady in the quarterback slot. The team may even have to be looking at an entirely new offense if they bring in an outside veteran quarterback. Or they could decide to use Kyle Trask, who was on the sidelines behind Tom Brady all season. Just don’t bother looking for his NFL stats.

THE BEGINNINGS OF A “TRASK MARKET”

Because of where Trask sits within the Buccaneers organization, and because he was able to shadow Tom Brady, sports collectors have been gobbling up his football cards ahead of and after Brady’s formal retirement announcement. Trask’s cards have seen a flurry of trading activity in recent days, but the overall population of graded cards is still extremely low. The ungraded cards being bought in droves are likely about to be submitted to PSA, SGC and BGS as fast as you can read this market snapshot.

Supply & Demand are key forces in economics and in deriving any current or future values in sports cards. The supply of total Trask cards is huge, but there is a “phantom” scarcity on the graded card side of the equation. The reality is that these cards just haven’t gone through the grading process yet. If it is still taking weeks or months before known star cards come back graded, the collecting community has so far had Kyle Trask in the “get graded later, maybe” box.

Collectors Dashboard evaluates high-end collectibles as an alternative asset class. This means collectibles are attracting the same capital that could have been invested into stocks or bonds. So far, the “Kyle Trask Market” is far from a high-end market that costs thousands of dollars per card. That doesn’t mean that speculators are not buying these up to sell for a profit ahead.

As with most players these days, there are just too many base rookie cards and limited edition and signed patch cards to keep up with. That is also true as you (see below) look at all of the variations of Trask’s rookie cards.

COULD BE BIG, COULD BE ZERO!

If there are absolutely no guarantees of a profit in stocks and bonds, what sort of guaranteed profits come with young football players with nothing but pre-season time on the field? These cards might not just lose money of anything goes wrong — they could all be worth absolutely zero if nearly anything goes wrong in the weeks and months ahead.

Collectors Dashboard looked at recent trending data from multiple sources before getting into who Trask is and why he may or may not be the QB for the Buccaneers in 2022. Sites like eBay, auction houses, COMC, Sports Card Investor and others were used to make some determinations.

If you do not even know who Kyle Trask is, you really aren’t alone. Trask was drafted by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the second round of the 2021 NFL Draft. The Florida Gators quarterback really didn’t get much college playing time until 2019 due to injuries, but in just 27 college games for the Gators Trask racked up 7,386 passing yards, had a 67.9% completion rate, threw 69 touchdowns and had 15 interceptions. And of his starting games, Trask also had a 17-5 record.

STATS & LIVING IN THE SHADOWS

Kyle Trask was living in the shadows for the entire 2021 season. Based on Google Trends, no one has been searching “Kyle Trask” for over six months up until the last few days. All any fans and those in the sports collectibles hobby wanted to talk about was Tom Brady, Patrick Mahomes and the other hot playing young quarterbacks. “Backups and second-tier prospects be damned” was the rule.

The 2021 NFL draft class was already loaded with a whole slew of star quarterbacks. Still, Trask’s second-round draft ranking was significantly higher than Tom Brady’s 199th overall pick in the sixth-round way back in the 2000 NFL Draft.

Trask basically has no statistics as a professional quarterback. That puts him in a precarious position when the Buccaneers may have a short to fill the open QB slot with Aaron Rodgers, Russell Wilson or even Deshaun Watson. One issue which may help Trask is that he isn’t considered in the “too small to be a QB” camp – at 6’5″ and 235 pounds (or so) he isn’t going to look like a Lilliputian next to defensive ends, linebackers and the linemen who will want to slam him into the turf.

EBAY SALES STARTED JAMMING!!!

The larger-ticket “Sold” items on eBay for Kyle Trask rookie cards were dominated by the Buy It Now (or Best Offer) category. This makes it harder to determine an actual price but there were plenty of “Auction” items as well. And like you are used to, there are too many variations of Kyle Trask rookies to easily count. Here are some of the provable auctions and sales we have tracked in the last 24 hours on eBay:

  • 2021 Panini XR Luminous Endorsements Kyle Trask #LUM-KTR RC AUTO /10 $299.99 (or Best Offer) on Feb. 2, 2022
  • 2021 Panini Immaculate Kyle Trask Pitts Toney Triple Rookie On-Card Auto #12/25 $525.00 (or Best Offer) on Feb. 2, 2022
  • Kyle Trask Panini XR Jumbo RPA 2/75 1/1 (or Best Offer) on Feb. 2, 2022
  • 2021 PANINI DONRUSS LOT OF (5) Kyle Trask RATED ROOKIE CARDS $19.99 (or Best Offer) on Feb. 2, 2022
  • 2021 Panini NFL Origins Kyle Trask Buccaneers Rookie RC Orange Parallel #158/175 $21.33 (or Best Offer) on Feb. 2, 2022, although it had a $21.37 shipping from Australia
  • (5) Kyle Trask 2021 Donruss Premium GOLD PRESS PROOF RC #257 BUCCANEERS $99.99 (or Best Offer) on Feb. 2, 2022
  • 2021 Panini Illusions Football Kyle Trask Mystique Rookie Auto RC – #/50 $132.50 after 12 bids on Feb. 2, 2022
  • 2021 Donruss Optic Rated Rookie Preview Red and Green #257 Kyle Trask RC $20.50 after 8 bids on on Feb. 2, 2022
  • 2021 NATIONAL TREASURES COLLEGIATE Kyle Trask RC JERSEY AUTO 67/99 ZC510 for $102.50 after 16 bids on Feb. 2, 2022
  • 2021 Panini Mosaic Kyle Trask RC Rookie Silver Prizm Auto Buccaneers $104.50 after 30 bids on Feb. 2, 2022
  • 2021 Panini Spectra Football Kyle Trask Autographed Rookie Card Patch Edition for $174.50 after 24 bids on Feb. 2, 2022
  • 2021 Xr Kyle Trask Orange Patch Rookie RC #15/25 #XSW-KTR Buccaneers A447 for $100.00 after 17 bids on Feb. 2, 2022
  • 2020 PANINI MOSAIC Kyle Trask ROOKIE AUTO PRIZM SILVER for $241.91 after 23 bids.
  • 2021 Absolute Kyle Trask Jaelon Darden Team Tandem RC Jersey #128/199 A448 for $36.00 after 8 bids on Feb. 2, 2022
  • 2020 PANINI MOSAIC Kyle Trask ROOKIE PRIZM BLUE 04/99 for $76.00 after 18 bids on Feb. 2, 2022
  • 2021 Donruss Elite Kyle Trask Pen Pals Rookie RC Auto #PP-KT Buccaneers A448 for $102.50 after 10 bids on Feb. 2, 2022
  • 2021 Panini Prestige RC Kyle Trask (listed as /299 ERROR CARD. Replacement auto?) for $88.00 after 24 bids on Feb. 2, 2022
  • 2021 Donruss Kyle Trask Gold Press Proof Rated Rookie RC #39/50 #257 A446 for $107.50 after 27 bids on Feb. 2, 2022
  • Kyle Trask RC Auto 20/175 Black RPA 3 Color Patch Silver Ink for $88.00 after 15 bids
  • 2021 Panini Flawless Collegiate /10 Kyle Trask Gold Diamond Gem Rookie Auto for $499.00 “or Best Offer” on Feb. 2, 2022
  • 2021 Panini Flawless Collegiate /25 Kyle Trask Rookie Silver Diamond Gem Auto $349.00 “or Best Offer” on Feb. 2, 2022
  • 2021 Panini Flawless Collegiate Kyle Trask Rookie Diamond Gem AUTO /25 for $206.50 after 10 bids on Feb. 2, 2022
  • 2021 Flawless Kyle Trask Flawless Ruby Signature Rookie RC Auto #18/20 #82 A448 for $205.00 after 33 bids on Feb. 2, 2022
  • (2) Kyle Trask RC Origins 118/299 Red & Base Rookie Lot Bucs for $21.50 after 8 bids on Feb. 2, 2022
  • Kyle Trask 2021 Pro Set Metal GREEN MOJO XRC RC AUTO 3/10 Gators/Bucs for $102.50 after 18 bids on Feb. 2, 2022

As you noticed above, there just are not that many graded cards in the system yet. eBay had a listing that sold on Jan. 8, 2022 that was listed as a 2021 Spectra Kyle Trask Radiant Neon Pink Prizm Rookie Patch Auto /35 PSA 9 S414 for $510.00 after 62 bids. eBay also had a sale on Jan. 16, 2022 that was a SGC 9 2021 Panini Contenders DP Kyle Trask RC Rookie 10 Auto Blue Shimmer 25/27 that sold for $90.00 after 25 bid. eBay also had a 2021 Gold Standard Jersey Double Prime 41/49 Kyle Trask SGC 9 Rookie Auto RC sell on Jan. 5, 2022 for $102.50 after 30 bids.

COMC, ALT, APPS, AUCTION HOUSES

A look elsewhere also revealed many Kyle Trask offerings and sales. COMC had 152 Kyle Trask cards listed as “Sold Out” and the active listings had 299 listings with price points as follows:

  • 1 at $470 – 2021 Wild Card MATTE Black – ThumbAgraphs – Blue
  • 2 at$341.10 – 2021 Wild Card MATTE Black ThumbAgraphs – Purple (one was green)
  • 1 at $286.10 – 2021 Panini National Treasures Collegiate – Team Logo Signatures
  • 1 at $257.50 – 2021 Panini XR – [Base] – Autographs #147
  • 1 at $230.28 2021 Leaf Metal Draft – Armed & Dangerous

These were the COMC choices at $100 to $200:

  • 2021 Panini Gold Standard – [Base] – White Gold #107 Rookies – Kyle Trask #/49 $165.10
  • 2021 Panini Classics – [Base] – Glossy #159 Rookies – Kyle Trask #/10 $167.85
  • 2021 Panini Legacy – Under the Lights – Sapphire #UL-KT Kyle Trask #/35 $174.99
  • 2021 Panini Legacy – Under the Lights Autographs – Yellow Diamond #UL-KT Kyle Trask #/25 $169.78
  • Rookie Jumbo Jersey Autographs – Kyle Trask $147.50
  • 2021 Wild Card MATTE Black – Smoking Guns – Purple Autographs [Autographed] #MSG-4 Kyle Trask #/30 $120.00
  • 2021 Panini Gold Standard – [Base] #278 Rookie Jersey Autographs Triple – Kyle Trask #/125 at $115.24
  • 2021 Panini Luminance – Dynamic Rookies – Green #DR-15 Kyle Trask #/10 at $115.24
  • 2021 Panini Legacy – [Base] – Premium Penmanship Bronze #146 at $102.89

The Sports Card Investor app had the #1 trending card on last look as the 2021 Donruss Base and the #10 trending card was Trask’s 2021 Donruss Press Proof Premium – but all trending cards #2 to #9 were still of Joe Burrow.

The Alt Exchange’s liquid assets showed only 2 selections, both graded, and these should show what you may expect as these graded card population becomes more available:

  • 2021 National Treasures Collegiate Patch Autograph Blue Kyle Trask #62 SGC 9 (47/49) for $1,000.00
  • 2021 Immaculate Collection Collegiate Immaculate Trios Autographs Kyle Pitts/Kadarius Toney/Kyle Trask #2 SGC 9 (2/25) for $1,450.00

After combing thru the auction houses it is almost as if Kyle Trask does not even exist yet (again, very low graded population). PWCC listed one recent sale at $19.00, and Heritage Auctions has no sales nor any available to bid on. The Goldin.co site listed “No Lots Found” in the auction and also had no results in any past auctions.

LOOKING AHEAD

Here are a couple articles that signal why Trask may (or may not) be up for the job in the 2022 NFL season:

Collectors Dashboard has already shown 4 other retired QBs that may have become more of an interest now as GOATS that we are entering the Post-Brady Era in football. These also come with zero assurances for those who are buying cards as speculation rather than just as collectors.

What you can be assured of is that probably every single one of these cards that have been purchased are heading to PSA, SGC or BGS for grading. The graded population is likely to explode higher and many of these $40 to $100 purchases are going to be on the market in slabs for $200 to $500 in the coming weeks or months based on how long it takes for them to be graded. And, of course, a good portion of those will go into slab boxes in closets with the hope that Trask’s QB career takes off and the hope that he will then join the next wave of young gun rookies that have cards listed at $5,000 and $10,000 each.

Again, right now Kyle Trask sales are all about hope — and buying his slew of rookie cards has absolutely zero guarantee of success!

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