The driving force in football cards and football collectibles is generally, and sadly, all about the quarterbacks. This of course is not a universal rule. That said, go look at all the top sales year after year and it’s the great QBs. This is of course unfair considering that a quarterback cannot succeed without a line and great receivers and backs. A great QB also has a hard time consistently win if he hast the worst defense in the NFL. And now the 2022 NFL draft’s first-round picks are going to pose a new challenge.

This brings up a point for #TheHobby in 2022 and 2023 after watching the first round of the 2022 NFL draft – will rookie football cards suffer in 2022 and 2023?

Here is where we are for the slate of expected seasoned quarterbacks in the NFL as of today. Tom Brady is returning for the Buccaneers and Super Bowl champion Matthew Stafford is returning for Rams for the 2022 season. There is also still the old guard of Russell Wilson, Kirk Cousins, Derek Carr, and likely Aaron Rodgers all sitting at the helm of their teams. Now let’s consider some of the current and recent phenomenal 20-somethings who are set to lead their teams as QB in 2022 (not in any particular order):

• Patrick Mahomes for the Chiefs,
• Justin Herbert for the Chargers,
• Josh Allen for the Bills,
• Joe Burrow for the Bengals,
• Dak Prescott for the Cowboys,
• Deshaun Watson (or Baker Mayfield) for the Browns (expected),
• Kyler Murray for the Cardinals (expected),
• Mac Jones for the Patriots,
• Trevor Lawrence for the Jaguars,
• Tua Tagovailoa for the Dolphins (expected),
• Trey Lance for the 49ers,
• and Jalen Hurts for the Eagles.

The NFL draft class of 2021 had perhaps the best class of graduating quarterbacks going into the NFL in years and years. The QB drafts also dominated the first round of the 32 picks. There was a lot of anticipation considering that there were so many talented “young guns” ready to play in the NFL. Now it seems that the NFL teams are ready to stick with the QB positions they have or trade for others. This was the order of QB draft picks in the first round of 2021:

• 1 (JAX) Trevor Lawrence QB (Clemson)
• 2 (NYJ) Zach Wilson QB (BYU)
• 3 (SFO) Trey Lance QB (North Dakota St.)
• 11 (CHI) Justin Fields QB (Ohio St.)
• 15 (NWE) Mac Jones QB (Alabama)

CBS had written in June of 2021 that the 2021 QB class was considered one of the most top-heavy in recent memory. We did keep this same thought in mind in 2021.

Now look at the list 2022 NFL draft picks, and Kenny Pickett from Pittsburgh was the only first round QB draft (also by the Pittsburgh Steelers as one of two potential replacements for Ben Roethlisberger. And in the 2022 NFL draft’s first-round picks, Georgia had an amazing 5 defensive players go in the first round. This is the order of first-round draft picks from the 2022 NFL draft:

• 1. Jacksonville Jaguars: Travon Walker, DE, Georgia
• 2. Detroit Lions: Aidan Hutchinson, DE, Michigan
• 3. Houston Texans: Derek Stingley Jr., CB, LSU
• 4. New York Jets: Ahmad “Sauce” Gardner, CB, Cincinnati
• 5. New York Giants: Kayvon Thibodeaux, DE, Oregon
• 6. Carolina Panthers: Ikem Ekwonu, OT, North Carolina State
• 7. New York Giants: Evan Neal, OT, Alabama
• 8. Atlanta Falcons: Drake London, WR, USC
• 9. Seattle Seahawks: Charles Cross, OT, Mississippi State
• 10. New York Jets: Garrett Wilson, WR, Ohio State
• 11. New Orleans Saints: Chris Olave, WR, Ohio State
• 12. Detroit Lions: Jameson Williams, WR, Alabama
• 13. Philadelphia Eagles: Jordan Davis, DT, Georgia
• 14. Baltimore Ravens: Kyle Hamilton, S, Notre Dame
• 15. Houston Texans: Kenyon Green, G, Texas A&M
• 16. Washington Commanders: Jahan Dotson, WR, Penn State
• 17. Los Angeles Chargers: Zion Johnson, G, Boston College
• 18. Tennessee Titans: Treylon Burks, WR, Arkansas
• 19. New Orleans Saints: Trevor Penning, OT, Northern Iowa
• 20. Pittsburgh Steelers: Kenny Pickett, QB, Pittsburgh
• 21. Kansas City Chiefs: Trent McDuffie, DB, Washington
• 22. Green Bay Packers: Quay Walker, LB, Georgia
• 23. Buffalo Bills: Kaiir Elam, DB, Florida
• 24. Dallas Cowboys: Tyler Smith, OT, Tulsa
• 25. Baltimore Ravens: Tyler Linderbaum, C, Iowa
• 26. New York Jets: Jermaine Johnson II, DE, Florida State
• 27. Jacksonville Jaguars: Devin Lloyd, LB, Utah
• 28. Green Bay Packers: Devonte Wyatt, DT, Georgia
• 29. New England Patriots: Cole Strange, G, Chattanooga
• 30. Kansas City Chiefs: George Karlaftis, DE, Purdue
• 31. Cincinnati Bengals: Daxton Hill, S, Michigan
• 32. Minnesota Vikings: Lewis Cine, S, Georgia

It’s of course way too soon to make any predictions about how the sports collectibles hobby will treat any of these players once the 2022 NFL season kicks off. And we know that the hobby can immediately go cold on some players while getting overly excited about some players long before they have proven themselves. Some of these players may even become injured or have been unexpectedly unseated by their back-up QBs. And other off-field antics can get in the way.

This all boils down to several outcomes. The current go-to QB cards will remain the focal point in the hobby. The hobby will finally start giving more defensive players and other offensive players the respect that they deserve. Or maybe the hobby will revert back to past great quarterbacks who played in recent years or who are considered vintage cards. Or maybe it is something else entirely.

Then again, maybe the draft pick location doesn’t really matter at all. Tom Brady was drafted in the sixth round as the 199th pick. Joe Montana was drafted in the third round as the 82nd overall pick. Bart Starr and Roger Staubach were even later in the draft than them, and Kurt Warner was an undrafted free agent. And there is the legendary gaff of Johnny Unitas — the Pittsburgh Steelers picked him in the ninth round, cut him even before the start of a rookie year, and he went into construction in Pittsburgh and played on weekends as QB, safety and punter on a local semi-pro team before the Baltimore Colts gave him a shot.

Stay tuned.