Modern era sports collectors who wheel and deal in cards are constantly on the lookout for the next player who is the greatest of all-time, or the GOATs. The rookie classes of 2020 and 2021 have delivered some incredible talent, and Patrick Mahomes had been more or less already crowned as “The Next Tom Brady.” Dealers who went all-in on Mahomes paid a price in 2021 as his first half of the 2021 season wasn’t looking very “GOATish” at all with the playoffs looking impossible. Mahomes came back and now lead the AFC West with a 7-4 record.

What if “The Next Tom Brady” is actually Mac Jones, who just happens to be the quarterback for the New England Patriots? The Patriots now lead the AFC East with an 8-4 record and are currently tied with the Titans for the best AFC record after week 12 in 2021. The Buccaneers under Tom Brady are now tied in wins over in the NFC but have played one less game. And only the Packers and the Cardinals have more wins (at 9) in the NFC.

Collectors Dashboard evaluates collectibles as an alternative asset class. The same capital that could have been invested into stocks or bonds is being used to buy high-end collectibles. If sports collectors and investors are spending thousands of dollars for cards of a rookie quarterback, this definitely fits right into the alternative asset argument. Collectors and investors are also in a constant battle for who can win in auctions.

Mac Jones completed 23 of 32 passes this Sunday, collecting 310 yards and 2 touchdowns as the Pats trounced the Tennessee Titans in their 36 to 13 victory. Does anyone care if Jones picked up 11 yards rushing? Here was ESPN’s take on the matter:

Jones set a new career high in passing yards, topping his Week 7 total by three. The rookie quarterback capped New England’s first drive with a four-yard touchdown pass to Kendrick Bourne, then added a 41-yard touchdown to Bourne in the third, improving his TD:INT to 16:8. Between Jones’ strong play and a dominant defense, the Patriots have quietly emerged as contenders in the AFC, as they’ll bring an 8-4 record into a pivotal Week 13 trip to Buffalo.

Mac Jones was the 15th pick in the first round of April’s draft out of Alabama. He is touted as being 6′-3″ and clocking in at 217 pounds. His last year stats were more than impressive in 2020 — completing 77% of 402 pass attempts; an 11.1 YPA; and 96 total QBR. Oh, all of which were the best in class for the year. Jones had passed for 41 touchdowns and only gave up 4 interceptions.

Unfortunately, ESPN also notes that while Jones is “super poised and accurate” his arm strength and a lack of mobility are concerns.

What is so ironic is that Tom Brady wasn’t exactly the most popular nor sought after QB at the start of his career. The Michigan QB wasn’t picked until the 6th round of his draft. Brady’s first appearance as the Pats’ QB was stepping in for an injured Drew Bledsoe, and while the Pats beat the Colts 44-13 Brady only completed 13 of 23 passes and collected 168 yards. No one at the time, and probably not even Brady himself, could imagine the greatness, consistency and outright endurance that would reign for two decades.

With Mac Jones as the Pats’ QB under Bill Belichick, how qualified does it need to be for sports collectors and the sports investors to start counting up Mac Jones as “The Next Tom Brady” for the coming two decades? Admittedly it’s a stretch and the odds are obviously lined up against him. Statista lists the average NFL career length at just 3.3 years for all positions and 4.44 years for the QB position. Just don’t tell fans of George Blanda about that over his 26-year career being mixed as quarterback and placekicker.

After the victory against the Titans, Mac Jones has seen 268 completions out of 381 attempts (70.3%), for 2,850 yards. His 16 TD passes is with a 7.5 yard average, but Jones does have 8 interceptions. The Patriots lost their first game in 2021 to the Miami Dolphins (score 16-17), and then they lost their third game of the season to the Saints (score 13-18). And then the Pats lost the fourth game of the season to Tom Brady and the Buccaneers (score 17-19) and they lost in week 6 to the Dallas Cowboys (score 29-35). Since that rocky start, the team has won 6 in a row. And next Monday Night Football game on December 6 is against the Buffalo Bills, who trail the Patriots by 1 game in the AFC East under the 6′-5″ and 237 pound Josh Allen as QB.

The reality is that Mac Jones has a lot of parallels and a lot of differences to other quarterbacks. When we covered some risks about the QB rookie class of 2021, Mac Jones was not even the most covered at the time. He has already outperformed some of those other top quarterbacks and then some.

(Image from PWCC Marketplace)

To evaluate the top sales of Mac Jones cards, we have looked at online sales from sources like eBay, Goldin Auctions, Heritage Auctions, and from PWCC. The reality is that Mac Jones simply has too few cards and too few games to have seen countless sales at some of the auction houses as of yet.

Goldin Auctions (now Goldin.co) sold a 2021 Panini Immaculate Collection Collegiate “Rookie Patch Autographs” Brand Logo #62 Mac Jones Signed Nike Patch Rookie Card listed as (#2/2) graded BGS Gem Mint 9.5/BGS 10 for $2,520.00 after 11 bids in the Goldin Elite from October 23-24, 2021. The sub-grades were all listed as BGS 9.5 Centering, Corners, Edges and Surface.

PWCC sold a 2021 Leaf Metal Draft Purple Marble Mac Jones Rookie RC AUTO /30 SGC 9.5 GEM MT SGC Pop. 1 of 1 for $210.00 on October 26, 2021. What would that sell for now? PWCC has also sold three examples of the 2021 Donruss Downtown! graded by Beckett. A BGS 9 sold for $1,125 and a BGS 9.5 sold for $2,200 and a BGS Pristine 10 sold $4,100.

Online auction giant eBay has seen a significant number of higher-end Mac Jones card sales take place in the last week alone. We screened out the “Buy It Now” sales unless there was a “or Best Offer” option, and we focused on the cards which were already graded PSA 10. That means any of the ungraded cards were screened out unless noted below.

Collectors and investors should keep in mind that the ongoing grading delays and high grading costs that have been seen by PSA, SGC and BGS should automatically come with a serious caveat. Whatever the graded populations are as of now, there will be countless more added to the population reports in the coming months and years.

Here are some of the high-end sales that have been seen through eBay over the last week alone:

• Nov 28, 2021 — 2021 Panini Certified Mirror Pink Mac Jones Patriots RC Rookie 61/199 PSA 10 sold for $1,125.00 after 39 bids.
• Nov 28, 2021 — 2021 Certified Mirror #106 Mac Jones Patriots RC Rookie 86/299 PSA 10 POP 1 sold for $476.00 after 22 bids.
• Nov 28, 2021 — Mac Jones Rookie Card PSA 10 Gem Mint Rated Rookie #255 RC sold for $3,050.00 after 41 bids.
• Nov 28, 2021 — 2021 Donruss MAC JONES OPTIC PREVIEW PURPLE Rated Rookie #P255 PSA 10 (POP 2) sold for “$3,000.00 or Best Offer.”
• Nov 28, 2021 — 2021 Panini Donruss Mac Jones RC Rated Rookies as a 4-card lot that was listed as “PSA 10 CANDIDATES” for $192.50 after 3 bids.
• Nov 28, 2021 — 2021 Donruss Rookie Revolution Mac Jones Patriots RC PSA 10 sold for $290.00 after 44 bids.
• Nov 27, 2021 — 2021 Donruss #255 Mac Jones Portrait Rated Rookie PSA 10 sold for $860.00 after 16 bids.
• Nov 27, 2021 — 2021 Certified Mac Jones Mirror Orange /149 PSA 10 Graffiti sold for $1,350.00 after 26 bids.
• Nov 27, 2021 — 2021 Donruss Mac Jones Portrait Rated Rookie #255 PSA 10 (Low Pop) sold for $1,050.00 after 27 bids.
• Nov 27, 2021 — 2021 Donruss Mac Jones Rated Rookie PSA 10 #255 sold for $2,800.00 after 31 bids.
• Nov 26, 2021 — 2021 Mac Jones RC Donruss Rated Rookie PSA 10 Gem Mint 255 (Low Pop) sold for $2,247.00 after 40 bids.
• Nov 26, 2021 — 2021 Leaf Metal Draft Mac Jones Armed and Dangerous Auto #8/10 PSA 10 sold for $940.00 after 10 bids.
• Nov 25, 2021 — 2021 Donruss MAC JONES OPTIC PREVIEW PURPLE #P255 Rated Rookie PSA 10 (POP 1) sold for $2,550.00 after 103 bids.
• Nov 22, 2021 — 2021 Panini Donruss Downtown! Mac Jones DT-40 RC SSP PSA 10 sold for “$4,000.00 or Best Offer.”
• Nov 22, 2021 — Mac Jones 2021 Downtown Donruss DT-40 PSA 10 Rookie Card sold for “$4,800.00 or Best Offer.”
• Nov 22, 2021 — 2021 Certified Mirror Red Mac Jones Patriots RC Rookie 80/99 PSA 10 (POP 1) sold for $4,050.00 after 61 bids.
• Nov 22, 2021 — Mac Jones PSA 10 Certified Mirror Orange 12/149 (Only 1 In Existence, POP 1) sold for $1,282.99 after 30 bids.
• Nov 22, 2021 — 2021 Donruss Season Stat Line #255 Mac Jones RC Rookie 200/500 PSA 10 sold for $1,351.00 after 54 bids.
• Nov 21, 2021 — Leaf Metal Draft Mac Jones RED CRYSTAL AUTO 1/3 ROOKIE PSA 10 sold for $3,499.99.
• Nov 21, 2021 — 2021 Panini Prizm Draft Picks Gold Ice #104 Mac Jones PSA 10 sold for $690.00 after 25 bids.

The reality is that predicting who “The Next Tom Brady” is will come with some serious disappointments and volatility along the way. The rookie quarterback class of 2021 was shown to be one of the most promising but there have already been significant disappointments that have come at a significant cost to dealers and collectors who have been speculating on modern hot rookie cards. And anyone who considers themselves a sports card investor better keep the same lesson in mind from stock, bond and real estate investors: there is no such thing as a guaranteed profit (and due to taxes and fees any purchase made is technically out-of-the-money!).

There is another thought that should be considered here. Peyton Manning and Tom Brady were initially considered equals or near-equals a decade ago. We now know that is no longer the case. What if “The Next Tom Brady” is really just Tom Brady?