There is an interesting debate that takes place when super-star players reach the mid-way point in their career. This is how well a player can and will do in the second half of their career. Mike Trout is undoubtedly one of the best players in Major League Baseball. A serious calf injury cut his season short in 2021. Despite his greatness, some collectors have to be debating if Mike Trout rookie cards are now overvalued or undervalued.

Before you jump to the conclusion that this is a Mike Trout bash or another prediction that his career and collectability in baseball cards is over, it is not. It is still a worthy debate about his card prices as there are many of his rookie cards on the market and as he has set modern card auction price records in the past.

THE CURRENT CHALLENGES

Trout played in just 36 games in 2021 and played in 53 of the shortened 60-game season of 2020. Trout’s last full season was 2016 with 159 games. How will baseball fans and baseball card collectors view Mike Trout after 2021?

Many collectors still argue that Trout’s prized rookie cards are undervalued. Others argue that Trout’s rookies are overvalued. And there is a case of more risk than reward for modern era rookie baseball cards valued at $10,000 and higher. The good news is that this is what makes “a market” work with ample buyers and sellers.

As of this time in September, Trout’s return is still a question for 2021 – and likely not. The Los Angeles Angels are also extremely close to being out of any playoff contention. That means that baseball fans and all the stat-crazed modern era baseball card collectors and card investors will likely focus on the players on teams who are dominating the news.

THE GOOD IN PRICES

Before you debate whether Mike Trout rookie cards are now overvalued or undervalued, do not forget that Trout holds the modern-era baseball card record of for his rookie card.

The seller of that $3.9 million Mike Trout 2009 Bowman Chrome autographed Superfractor (population 1 of 1) card also went on the record that he helped to hype the sale and price of that card too.

THE 2021 SEASON WINDS DOWN

Trout was having a stellar 2021 before his calf injury. He was hitting with a .333 batting average from his 39 hits. Trout also had 8 home runs and had a total of 18 runs batted in. This was after 36 games. According to Forbes 2021 earnings reports, including endorsements, Mike Trout’s $38.5 million was the third highest in the entire MLB rankings.

The Los Angeles Angels still have Shohei Ohtani continuing to dominate the national baseball news. Unfortunately, the Angels team record this year is not even .500 ball. They are in 4th place and are 12.5 games out of first place. That’s with with just 24 games left in the 2021 season.

You can never call a team out of the playoff race until the math dictates it, but the Angels are on the verge of falling out of this season’s news cycle no matter what else Shohei Ohtani does. The team just split 2 of 4 games with the down and out Texas Rangers, with the Rangers having the second worse record in the American League this season, the Angels have to play 7 games against the first place Houston Astros. They also have to play 6 games against the 2nd place Seattle Mariners and 3 games against the 3rd place Oakland A’s.

OUTLOOK 

In mid-August, CBS Sports wrote an article about Trout’s two straight compromised seasons. Their question was how lost time might cost him the quest to be an all-time great. This is unfortunate, but this is a time in history where baseball card collectors are hyper-focused on daily and weekly super-star stats. The longer players are out of the game, the less positive their fan craze is.

There are two immediate tangible risks for Mike Trout’s prized rookie cards. The obvious risk is whether he comes back this season. The second risk is that Angeles are on the verge of getting zero news coverage for the rest of 2021. Which risk is greater for rookie card prices can be debated.

First and foremost, none of this is written in stone as of September 7. Anything can happen in baseball. Every team knows firsthand that their season can go awry and their lead can vanish during the last four weeks of a season.

CARD MUSINGS

SportsCardResearch.com has previously said that the Mike Trout 2011 Bowman Chrome #175 is one of the most popular Mike Trout rookie cards in the hobby as the third most actively traded Trout card of 2020 with more than 300 transactions.

The fractional ownership app Otis shows a that the 2009 Bowman Chrome Draft Picks & Prospects (89/500) graded BGS 9.5 has fallen 30% since its debut. That put the value at $32,060 on last look. The app for Rally Rd. also shows a 2009 Bowman Mike Trout variation as an Orange Refractor was valued at $191,250 for a BGS 9.5/10 grade, but that is down about 15% from its prior value.

RECENT CARD PRICES

The 2011 Bowman Chrome #175 Mike Trout Refractor in PSA 10 Gem Mint grades saw prices surge into 2021, but they are now closer to Summer 2020 prices. PSACard.com shows that prices had backed off of the Jan/Feb 2021 highs of the $17,100 to $20,100 peak range. While many modern era cards sold off after a Feb/March peak, Trout’s top rookie prices in PSA 10 have continued to suffer. A PSA 10 example sold for $12,600 in April and another sold for $11,101.90 in June, but the last 3 examples at PSA 10 have sales prices of $8,700 (July 1), $7,398 (Aug. 9) and $8,099.99 (Aug. 29).

There are multiple 2011 Topps Update #US175 for collectors to choose from his go-to rookie card. The PSA Cardfacts counter shows 11 variations, but some have very low populations (or just 1). The base rookie from that set shows 10,244 total graded examples without the .5 grades and without qualifiers. Of those, there are 800 at PSA 8, followed by 3,024 at PSA 9 and 5,475 at PSA 10. That chart tracking the PSA 10 cards currently shows that the sale prices have been down handily from earlier in 2021.

Baseball card collectors have a solid history of chasing Mike Trout cards too, but that hasn’t translated well in 2021 for Trout’s prized rookie card values. All that said, here are some of the current Mike Trout prices already seen in auction format and still not completed on eBay:

• Mike Trout 2009 Bowman Chrome Auto Blue Refractor /150 Gem Mint BGS 9.5/10 at $22,400.00 with 35 bids and with 17 hours left.
• Mike Trout 2009 Bowman Chrome Auto X-fractor /225 BGS True Gem + 9.5/10 at $15,300.00 with 53 bids and 1 day left.
• Mike Trout 2009 Bowman Chrome Auto True Gem + BGS 9.5/10 at $10,010.00 with 17 bids and 1 day left.
• 2019 Topps Definitive MIKE TROUT SHOHEI OHTANI Dual Autograph 1/1 BGS 9.5 10 at $12,000.00 with 23 bids and over 5 days left.
• 2011 Bowman Sterling Black Refractor #19 Mike Trout RC Rookie AUTO /25 BGS 9.5 at $8,300.00 after 27 bids and 1 day and 12 hours left.

TROUT’s ALL-IN TAKE

Mike Trout is one of those iconic players that any team and most baseball card collectors would want. That of course comes with the inclusion, as with any player, that he remains healthy and continues to play well.

In 2012, Mike Trout won the AL rookie of the year and he also posted the greatest position player WAR by a rookie in baseball history. His stats with more than 300 home runs at age 29 and a career .305 batting average already have him on the way to securing a place in Baseball’s Hall of Fame in Cooperstown, New York.

As for the Mike Trout rookie cards that you can easily buy being overvalued or undervalued, that is up to each buyer and seller to decide.

On a final note, there is also 2022 to look forward to.

(Image provided by Heritage Auctions)